Before Kalshi and Polymarket there was the Iowa Electronic Markets
Planet Money
- Published
- June 24, 2026
- Duration
- 22:57
- Summary source
- description
- Last updated
- Jul 5, 2026
Discusses Prediction markets aren’t new. Election betting was common until the 1940s, then mysteriously faded …
Summary
Prediction markets aren’t new. Election betting was common until the 1940s, then mysteriously faded away.There was an entire political era when party bosses were expected to conspicuously gamble on their candidates (even if they secretly hedged).And in the 1980s, a few economists designed an election market that beat out election polling 74 percent of the…
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Show notes
Prediction markets aren’t new. Election betting was common until the 1940s, then mysteriously faded away.There was an entire political era when party bosses were expected to conspicuously gamble on their candidates (even if they secretly hedged).And in the 1980s, a few economists designed an election market that beat out election polling 74 percent of the time.Today, we’re running an excerpt from our friends at Throughline, NPR’s excellent history podcast. Subscribe right now if you don’t alread