Summary

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent joins from the G20 meeting in Asheville, North Carolina to discuss the Iran war, the bond market, AI and much more. We also speak to Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok on the market and D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria on OpenAI reaching a new ad revenue milestone. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an A…

Key takeaways

• Treasury Secretary Bessent framed US bond market performance as the global benchmark, noting 10-year yields are flat since inauguration and the 30-year has outperformed all major peers, while clarifying he cannot change equilibrium prices but aims to slow disorderly moves.
• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled potential rate hikes as early as September, citing sticky inflation near 3–3.5% and strong payrolls, with markets now pricing over 60% probability of a hike—a significant policy pivot from the prior easing cycle.
• Apollo's Torsten Slok identified early 2027 as a critical inflection point for AI ROI, warning that widening CDS spreads on hyperscalers suggest markets are beginning to question whether AI capex will deliver returns fast enough to justify current valuations.

Why this matters

The convergence of a hawkish Fed pivot, rising sovereign yields, active Treasury intervention signaling, and mounting scrutiny of AI capex returns is reshaping the cost-of-capital environment for enterprise technology investment and global capital allocation decisions heading into Q4.

Entities

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Show notes

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent joins from the G20 meeting in Asheville, North Carolina to discuss the Iran war, the bond market, AI and much more. We also speak to Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok on the market and D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria on OpenAI reaching a new ad revenue milestone. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Themes

• openai
• ai-regulation
• investing